So what of the SEC, ACC, MWC, and Big East

June 8th, 2010 § 1

June 8th, 2010

By Just A. Bartender

Dilworth, NC – As I wrote of the Super Conference, that opened the question about what the SEC and the others are going to do if the Big Ten and the Pac 10 move to 16 schools.  The SEC would probably be first to act, so who would they take to go from 12 to 16. (with likely percentage of them joining the SEC)


The Favorites

Miami, FL – This seems like a no brainer, big TV market, natural rivalry with Florida, and plenty of tradition, albeit a bit of a thuggish history.  This is a school that has won championships with a series of coaches in the very recent past.  They also owe the ACC no real loyalty. (90%)

Florida State – Is this the opposite, do the Seminoles become irrelevant with Bobby Bowden gone.  Probably not, they do cheat rather well to stay competitive, and great rivalries with Miami and Florida. (70%)

Georgia Tech – The Jackets lock down Atlanta, the nation’s 5th largest market.  They have a long and storied football history, they have six national titles over the last century and are the only team ever to score over 200 points in a game (222-0 over Cumberland in 1922)  (70%)

Going to need one more

North Carolina – Rich football program, great facilities, lots and lots of money and rich alumni in Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham.  Them leaving Duke and Wake Forest is not likely at all, but I feel the Tar Heels will listen when football can bring them $20 million versus the nine to ten they are getting now.  It would be a really great fit for the school and the conference, but not even greed will pull Chapel Hill out of the ACC, and their love of hoops.  Even though it should be enough to push them over the line, considering what could happen if they don’t. (15%)

Clemson – The most likely of this group to jump.  They believe they have a championship football program, they have some tradition, they bring the 35th TV market in Greenville/Asheville with them, and a great rivalry with South Carolina.  A couple of problems, though, orange and purple are really ugly colors that don’t match, and they would be also-rans year in and year out in the SEC.  The name recognition is there and they rate decent nationally. (40%)

NC State – Only if UNC made it the only way they would join and that probably won’t happen.  Not much of a program, decent facilities a good size market.  (4%)

Maryland – Great markets in Washington and Baltimore, but weak program, not a lot of tradition, and like Clemson, ugly uniforms. (3%)

West Virginia – They deliver an entire state and large alumni base.  They have had a very solid program over the past 20 years.  The problem is geography and rivalries, just wouldn’t make sense. (2%)

Virginia Tech – See West Virginia. (2%)

Louisville – This is a bit of a stretch, but the program has steadily improved over the last two decades, it is a medium TV market, and they have a great rivalry with Kentucky.  Still not enough for the SEC to want the Cardinals. (1%)

So the new 16 team SEC could add Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami, and Clemson, and the alignment might look like this:

SEC East – Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Miami, FL, and South Carolina

SEC West – Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt

It would be a very rough and tumble football conference, and have a very good imprint for a strong television network.   Throw in the SEC’s long standing tie with the Sugar Bowl.  Add some great conference rivalries; the three Florida schools, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Clemson/South Carolina, and moving Tennessee to the same division as Alabama and LSU.  Would be a serious power.

Of course, now the problem becomes, after the dismantling of the Big XII and stealing four schools from the ACC, the SEC would need a yin to their yang.  The Big Ten/Pac 10 duo is perfect a Midwest vs. Southwest/West conference.  So what would be perfect match for the massive and strong Southeastern Conference?  A Mid-Atlantic/Northeast alignment rising from the ashes of the ACC and Big East.  Perhaps a hybrid western conference would do the trick, the Mountain West and Boise State have been better than any of the ACC or Big East leftovers.  It could also be a combination of the two.  So here is a look at the scenarios:

Big East/ACC Combination (with a sprinkle of C-USA)

North Division – Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Marshall, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia

South Division – Central Florida, Duke, East Carolina, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, South Florida, and Wake Forest

Not a very stellar collection of football programs, but 16 teams and a lot of BCS schools.  The TV demos aren’t horrible, there are some good rivalries and potential rivalries in there.  The other option is to add ECU to the seven remaining ACC schools as one division, and then basically a lot of new and old Big East schools as the other division.  For hoops they could even stay separate conferences, which would keep the football schools in the Big East fold and return the ACC to a great basketball league.

The New Mountain West

Front Range Division – Air Force, Baylor, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State,  TCU, and Wyoming

High Dessert Division – BYU, Boise State, Fresno State, Hawai’i, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, and Utah

When it comes to the recent success, this group may be more viable than the Big East/ACC expatriots.  Solid television markets, established rivalries, and most of the schools have survived several conference realignments.

The other option would be a combo of the two, that could look something like this.  Not very realistic, because several schools will be left out in the cold and screw up hoops.  Of course screwing up hoops is probably why I like it best. Also this groupings will allow for ten teams, better for non-revenue sports.

East/West Hybrid (not the little cars)

East Conference - Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Maryland, North Carolina, NC State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia

West Conference – Air Force, Boise State, BYU, Colorado State, Kansas, Kansas State, San Diego State, TCU, Utah, and Wyoming

I know what ACC folks are thinking, “No Duke, no Wake Forest.”  Just like the Mountain schools would be weird without New Mexico and UNLV, but they dumped Hawai’i years ago, the Warriors were part of the old WAC before either of those schools.  This is a much better football conference with excellent markets and great football schools.  It would make for a great championship game and a coast to coast TV Network, much like the Rose Bowl Network would be.

All and all if the Big Ten/Pac 10 power grab works out, the leftover schools have a lot of challenges.  The SEC has been a power conference for a long time, and if they make the right moves should remain a major player.  The other three leagues have a lot of work to do.  The Mountain West is most prepared for this odyssey, but they aren’t as established and the schools don’t have as much clout.  The Big East has always been a scramble in football, normally praying to the basketball gods first.  The good football schools, WVU, Cincy, Pitt, and UConn owe no loyalty to anyone.  This leaves the power with the ACC, they won’t be as glamorous in football, but the schools have held together for nearly a century.  So they should be the conference to survive.

The other option for the ACC is to go on the offensive before the SEC.  There is a history with South Carolina.  Kentucky would be great in hoops and no threat in football.  It is another curious option, but highly unlikely, it did take the ACC almost two decades to fully expand after Arkansas jumped to the SEC and Penn State jumped to the Big Ten.  Anyway it is time to see who really depends on football and who just wants to keep close to Duke.

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